A field report on Bulgaria's 8th snap election in 5 years, the pro-Russian ex-general poised to win it, and the quiet mathematical certainty that none of this will produce a government.
Thank you so much a very good insight in my opinion. Especially now that the outcome is available, to look at it in this perspective, the situation is somehow more acceptable. Or, the very high percentage for the winner's votes may become a source of trouble? And my questions rises exactly from the comments I have read so far that Bulgaria is now the new Hungary. Thank you very much!
Yes, the final results are in, and despite anticipating that he will emerge as a leading political power in these elections, many (myself included) did not expect him to get the majority needed to unilaterally form a government.
Based on sociological studies, the anticipation was to win 100-110 seats and would need coalition partners to form a government (he needs 121 to form one, and he secured them).
He won’t be the next Orban, because it is structurally impossible for him to become one at this point in time. Looking at some of his cabinet picks, he won’t be pushing a pro-Russian foreign policy and his policies won’t have a continental impact anyway.
He will talk like an Orban domestically, act like a Fico in bilateral meetings, and vote like Babis in the European parliament (meaning, he won’t be using veto to block decisions).
That is the short-term. In the long-term - after his mandate is over and beyond - things might change, but there are too many variables to predict at the moment. One of which is that we don’t even know whether Russia will survive in its’ current form in the next 4 years. If it doesn’t, his populism will die with his beloved empire.
I think the United States has a golden opportunity to audit how its’ system operates and reform it in a way that doesn’t allow for populist movements to wreck havoc on the republic, nor the world at large. Both parties need to introspect and change course, and Congress - which from what I understand has delegated a lot of its’ responsibilities to the President over the years - needs to start doing its’ job that is so generously funded by the American taxpayer.
Yes,but that assumes that both parties want to maintain a representative democracy that allows full unimpeded participation by all citizens. I'm not sure we have that.
Actually, Congress has delegated a lot of it's responsibilities to administrative agencies in which, while the Director is appointed by the President, the unappointed career bureaucrats govern the country as they wish.
As a Hungarian, you are saying alll the things we have always thought about Bulgarian politics!
Thank you so much a very good insight in my opinion. Especially now that the outcome is available, to look at it in this perspective, the situation is somehow more acceptable. Or, the very high percentage for the winner's votes may become a source of trouble? And my questions rises exactly from the comments I have read so far that Bulgaria is now the new Hungary. Thank you very much!
Hi Rossella,
Here is another article I wrote for WarFronts, which delves a little more into the Bulgarian elections: https://fronts.co/article/did-bulgaria-really-just-elect-the-next-orban/
Yes, the final results are in, and despite anticipating that he will emerge as a leading political power in these elections, many (myself included) did not expect him to get the majority needed to unilaterally form a government.
Based on sociological studies, the anticipation was to win 100-110 seats and would need coalition partners to form a government (he needs 121 to form one, and he secured them).
He won’t be the next Orban, because it is structurally impossible for him to become one at this point in time. Looking at some of his cabinet picks, he won’t be pushing a pro-Russian foreign policy and his policies won’t have a continental impact anyway.
He will talk like an Orban domestically, act like a Fico in bilateral meetings, and vote like Babis in the European parliament (meaning, he won’t be using veto to block decisions).
That is the short-term. In the long-term - after his mandate is over and beyond - things might change, but there are too many variables to predict at the moment. One of which is that we don’t even know whether Russia will survive in its’ current form in the next 4 years. If it doesn’t, his populism will die with his beloved empire.
Thank you so much! I will read the article.
Your comments and opinions are always a great guidelines for me in these troubled times.
I wish we, here in the US, could say that our system was working in any sense.
I think the United States has a golden opportunity to audit how its’ system operates and reform it in a way that doesn’t allow for populist movements to wreck havoc on the republic, nor the world at large. Both parties need to introspect and change course, and Congress - which from what I understand has delegated a lot of its’ responsibilities to the President over the years - needs to start doing its’ job that is so generously funded by the American taxpayer.
Yes,but that assumes that both parties want to maintain a representative democracy that allows full unimpeded participation by all citizens. I'm not sure we have that.
Actually, Congress has delegated a lot of it's responsibilities to administrative agencies in which, while the Director is appointed by the President, the unappointed career bureaucrats govern the country as they wish.